If you’ve read the latest housing headlines, you’ve probably seen some conflicting takes.
And when you zoom out, it makes sense as to why: A new Zillow report found that, in half of the country’s largest metros, home values rose over the past year. In the other half, they fell.
So today, let’s break down what’s happening nationally—and, more importantly, how it compares to what we’re seeing here in Tucson.
National Market Trends
At the national level, home values have barely moved, rising just 0.2% over the past year.
- Home values rose in 25 major markets, mostly in the Midwest and Northeast. Cleveland (+4.7%) and Hartford (+4.5%) led the pack.
- Home values fell in 25 markets, especially in the South and West. Tampa (-6.2%), Austin (-6%), and Miami (-4.6%) saw the steepest declines.
Aside from home prices, here’s what’s happening across the country:
- Sellers cut prices on 27.4% of listings, the highest rate since tracking began in 2018.
- Homes are lingering on the market longer, with a median 60 days on market—the slowest July in over a decade.
- Mortgage costs are down slightly, about $19 per month compared to last year, but still nearly $1,000 higher than before the pandemic.
That means affordability remains a challenge, even in markets where buyers have the upper hand.
What’s Happening in Tucson
National trends don’t always tell the full story. Here in Tucson:
- Median home price: $365,000 (no change from last year)
- Price cuts: Homes closed at an average of 2.18% below asking price in July, showing sellers are open to negotiation—comparable to the national trend of 27.4% of listings seeing reductions.
- Days on market: Homes here are selling in a median of 36 days, compared to the national 60-day median.
What does this mean for you? Tucson’s market is stable, but we’re seeing a slower pace than last year. For buyers, there’s more breathing room and a better chance to negotiate. For sellers, it’s all about pricing your home right from the start—otherwise, you could be in for a longer wait.
What It Means for Buyers
Nationally, buyers are seeing more homes sit longer and more price cuts. In Tucson, that’s true too: inventory is up, homes are staying on the market longer, and most are selling slightly under list price. The feeding frenzy of the past couple years has eased, so you have more choices and less pressure.
If you’re looking to buy, here’s my advice:
- Watch for price reductions. It’s a sign sellers are willing to negotiate.
- Get pre-approved so you’re ready to act when the right home hits the market.
- Don’t assume headlines about “falling prices” apply here. Tucson prices are steady, not dropping.
What It Means for Sellers
The national data is clear: Homes that are overpriced are sitting. Homes that are priced right are still selling.
Here in Tucson, well-priced homes are selling in just over a month on average. But if you reach too high, your listing could linger—sometimes a lot longer. Today’s buyers are savvy and have plenty of homes to choose from, so a strong price and great online presentation make all the difference.
If you’re thinking of selling, remember:
- Pricing competitively from the start is more important than ever.
- Buyers are savvy, with plenty of data at their fingertips.
- Making your home shine online with great photos, 3D tours, or floor plans can help you stand out.
The Bottom Line
Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow, summed it up best: “Perhaps more than ever, whether it’s a good time to buy depends on where you live.”
The housing market is split nationally, but what really matters is what’s happening locally. If you’re thinking of buying or selling in Tucson, the numbers show that strategy matters more than ever.
Pricing, timing, and presentation will determine who wins in this market.